Under the Paris Agreement, member states are required to explain how the results of the Global Stocktake (GST) will be reflected in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The UBA research project “GST in NDCs – How are the results of the first Global Stocktake reflected in the NDCs?”, analyses the extent to which the signals and impulses from the results of the first Global Stocktake 2023 (Decision 1/CMA.5 ) have been taken up in the new Nationally Determined Contributions submitted in 2025. Based on this analysis of the impact of the results of the first GST, conclusions can be drawn for future GST and NDC cycles.
For the impact analysis, up to 75 NDCs will be systematically evaluated using an analysis grid developed within the project. The consideration of key GST recommendations will be assessed qualitatively and quantitatively. The results will be presented in a publication by May 2026 with illustrative figures and an infographic.
Central to the analysis are paragraphs 28 (with subparagraphs), 33, 36, 37, 39, 40 and 42 of the GST decision. These contain key recommendations on global greenhouse gas reduction and the design of ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions, including the expansion of renewable energies, the phase-out of fossil fuels, climate neutrality by 2050 and macroeconomic transformation pathways. In detail:
- §28a‑h: (a) Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030; (b) Phase-down of unabated coal power; (c) Net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels; (d) Transitioning away from fossil fuels; (e) Accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies; (f) Substantial reduction of non-carbon-dioxide emissions, in particular methane emissions; (g) Reduction of emissions from road transport; (h) Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
- §33: Conserving, protecting and restoring nature, ecosystems, biodiversity, halting deforestation, conserving sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases
- §36: Sustainable lifestyles and sustainable patterns of consumption and production, circular economy approaches
- §37: Revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets, meet Paris Agreement temperature goal
- §39: Ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories, aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
- §40: Align NDCs with long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies
- §42: Communicate or revise long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies towards just transitions to net zero emissions by or around mid-century
The aim is to contribute the results of the research project towards the negotiations for the second GST. These negotiations will gather momentum in 2027, as will the negotiations on future NDCs (e.g. procedures, reporting requirements), which will start to be discussed in 2026. Another goal is to increase public awareness of the GST, NDCs and the ambition mechanism of the Paris Agreement.
Parts of the GST decision relating to adaptation, financing, loss and damage, and international cooperation are explicitly not included in this analysis.