Future role for voluntary carbon markets in the Paris era

The end of 2020 marks a fundamental change in the global governance of greenhouse gas emissions with the shift from the Kyoto Protocol era to that of the Paris Agreement. This also has implications for the future role and the feasible models of the voluntary carbon market. A critical focus is whether and how 'double counting' of emission reductions is avoided. Three models emerge as potentially viable options in the Paris era: the “contribution claim”, “NDC crediting” and “non-NDC crediting” approaches, each with their own respective strengths and weaknesses. The results are aimed at all stakeholders in the voluntary market - from project developers and providers to users of voluntary offsetting.