Climate change impacts and adaption in Europe – JRC PESETA IV final report | Umweltbundesamt

“Windstorms are amongst the most damaging natural hazards in Europe, with approximately 5 €billion of estimated annual losses in the EU and UK. Climate model projections suggest that windstorms will not become more intense or happen more frequently with global warming over most of the European land. With 3°C warming, maximum wind speeds will likely reduce over 16% of the land area, increase over nearly 10% and remain relatively stable over the rest of Europe. Southern Europe is the region with the largest share of the area with an increase in wind extremes (17%), while central-western Europe has the largest share of land for which less intense wind extremes are projected (24%). Furthermore, the number of windy or stormy days does not show significant changes, while there is a robust tendency projected towards more calm days over most of Europe. Current models project that windstorm losses will not grow due to climate change. Future economic damage from windstorms will increase due to the size of the economy and consequent higher values of the exposed assets and construction costs. Windstorm annual losses are projected to grow to nearly 7 €billion/year in 2050 and to 11 €billion/year by the end of this century.”(S. 7)

Abflussverhältnisse (von Oberflächengewässern)

- “Global warming and continued development in flood prone areas will progressively increase river flood risk. With 3°C global warming by the end of the century, river flood damage in the EU and UK would be six times present losses of 7.8 €billion/year and nearly half a million people would be exposed to river flooding each year, compared to 170,000 now. Keeping global warming with 1.5°C would halve these economic impacts and reduce the number of people exposed by 230,000. Adequate adaptation strategies can further substantially reduce future flood impacts. Four adaptation options have been explored at pan-European scale: reducing flood peaks using retention areas, strengthening existing dyke systems, implementing building-based damage reduction measures, and relocation..” (S. 8)

Wasserverfügbarkeit

- “Global warming will result in a general wetting of the north of Europe and a drying of the south. This results in increasing water availability in the north and a reduction in the south. The duration and intensity of water scarcity will grow in already existing water scarce areas in southern Europe. At higher levels of warming, water availability, especially in summer, will also drop in western parts of Europe and at higher latitudes. As a result, new areas that face periods of water scarcity will emerge in countries like Bulgaria, Romania France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, and the UK. The number of people who are living in areas that are considered to be water scarce for at least one month every year could rise from 52 million nowadays to 65 million in a 3°C warming scenario, which is equivalent to 15% of the current EU and UK population. The number of people living in severe water stress, now around 3.3 million, would become fourfold with unmitigated climate. In parts of southern Europe, during summer months practically all available water will be used, and the majority of people and economic activities in these regions would face water scarcity.” (S. 7)

Biotope, Habitate, Ökosysteme

- „ Due to the tight ecological-climatic bands in mountains, climate change could have major effects on alpine ecosystems. In a 3°C warming scenario, the alpine tundra domain over Europe would shrink by 84% of its present size, including the loss of precious Natura 2000 sites. In the Pyrenees high warming could lead to a near disappearance of the alpine tundra, while in the Alps and Scandes it would shrink by around 75% and 87% respectively of its present size. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would restrict alpine tundra contraction to 48%, most strongly in the Alps where the domain contraction would be limited to a loss of 36%. The natural climatic treeline is projected to move vertically upwards by up to 8 metres every year with unmitigated climate change. The rate of treeline shift is generally faster at lower latitudes, where climatic treelines are already higher. In the southernmost mountain regions the treeline moves upwards by around 6-7 m every year in the 1.5°C warming scenario, compared to 2-3 m/year at high latitudes. In a 3°C warming scenario, the treeline in the Pyrenees could rise by 642 m, in the Alps by 526 m and in the Scandes by 336 m. The projected changes have implications for vital ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and recreational services such as skiing. Adaptation is challenging because of the unique topographic, soil and climatic characteristics of high mountain systems.“ (S. 9)

Energieversorgung

- „The effects of climate change on different power sources vary throughout Europe and depends on the future energy mix. In northern Europe, where there is already high capacity for hydropower, the increase in water resources availability with global warming could lead to more hydropower production. Since hydropower has a lower marginal cost compared to thermal sources, the demand for power from thermal sources like biomass, coal, gas and oil would reduce in these regions. Depending on the local electricity production mix, the substitution effect is different, e.g. mainly biomass in Sweden, coal in Finland, oil in Lithuania and gas in Latvia. This would lead to economic benefits in northern Europe of around 1.3 €billion/year (2015 values) with 3°C warming. In southern regions water resources are expected to become scarcer with increasing levels of global warming. This would result in a reduction in hydropower and nuclear production. The substitution by non-nuclear thermal plants that have higher marginal production costs could lead to an increase in production costs by around 0.9 €billion/year (2015 values) with 3°C warming. The direct impacts of climate change on wind and solar production are not significant. However, in the 2050 power system that is in line with a 2°C mitigation scenario wind and solar capacity would increase in southern regions to compensate for the lost hydropower and nuclear power production.“ (S. 10)

Produktivität und Logistik

- “Exposing present economy to global warming of 3°C would result in an annual welfare loss of 175 €billion (1.38% of GDP). Under a 2°C scenario the welfare loss would be 83 €billion/year (0.65% of GDP), while restricting warming to 1.5°C would reduce welfare loss to 42 €billion/year (0.33% of GDP). PESETA III estimated a welfare loss of 1.9% of GDP for a 4°C warming scenario, indicating that economic impacts further grow with the intensity of global warming. Human mortality from extreme heat dominates the economic climate impacts, but its contribution is strongly dependent on the monetary valuation of human life. The magnitude of welfare losses in southern regions of Europe is estimated to be several times larger compared to that in the north. Welfare losses related to the impact categories considered would be substantially reduced when reaching the Paris Agreement global warming targets. In particular, limiting warming to 2°C would halve economic impacts compared to a 3°C scenario, while achieving the stringent Paris target of 1.5°C would lower welfare loss by 75%.” (S. 10f.)

Infrastruktur an Küsten

- “Extreme sea levels in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to global warming. Consequent damage from coastal flooding will rise sharply for all EU countries with a coastline if current levels of coastal protection are not raised. Without mitigation, annual economic damage in the EU and UK would grow to 239 €billion by 2100 and the population exposed to coastal flooding would reach 2.2 million. With moderate mitigation the damage would be reduced by half (to €111 billion/year) and the exposed population would be 1.4 million/year, still significantly greater than at present (1.4 €billion/year of damage and 0.1 million people annually population). The potential of raising dykes to reduce coastal impacts has been assessed as an adaptation option, likely an unavoidable strategy along developed stretches of Europe’s coastlines given the pronounced projected rises in sea level extremes. Raising dykes would reduce damage and the population affected by around 90% and 60% in 2100, respectively. The average annual cost of adaptation over the period 2020-2100 would be less than 2 €billion/year for the EU and UK, which is about two orders lower than the avoided coastal flood losses by the end of the century. This means that investing now in coastal protection will have very large (and growing) benefits in the long term.“ (S. 8f.)

Ertrag und Qualität der Ernteprodukte

- “Climate change is expected to lower grain maize potential yield by -11% and -5% on average in southern and northern Europe respectively under a 2°C warming scenario. In the absence of irrigation, declines in yield of over 20% are projected for all EU countries, with crop losses up to 80% in some southern European countries (Portugal, Bulgaria, Greece and Spain). This implies that grain maize production may no longer be viable in areas where irrigation is restricted due to water scarcity and precipitation significantly decreases. Even adaptation strategies, such as changing sowing dates and the sown variety, would not suffice to offset the projected strong reduction in rain-fed grain maize yield. The production of wheat, which is mostly a rain-fed crop in Europe, would increase by 5% on average in northern Europe because of changing precipitation regimes, an anticipated growing cycle and enhanced CO2 fertilization. In southern regions of Europe, however, yield reductions of 12% are estimated (in some areas yields could be halved) due to the strong decrease in precipitation. However, changing varieties could have a large beneficial effect for rain-fed wheat production. The negative effects of climate change on crop yields in Europe projected by biophysical models may considerably be reduced by changes induced by market adjustments, given the severe climate change impacts on large agricultural producers outside Europe. Therefore, EU production could slightly increase because Europe is projected to have a comparative advantage versus other world production regions with larger negative effects in terms of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity.” (S. 8)

Hitze- und kälteabhängige Erkrankungen oder Mortalitäten

- “Global warming will result in a strong net increase in exposure to and fatalities from temperature extremes, assuming there is no adaptation. Regarding heatwaves, with 1.5°C around 100 million Europeans would be exposed each year to an intense heatwave (corresponding to a present 50-year or more extreme heatwave event), or tenfold compared to now. This further grows to 170 million/year with 2°C and nearly 300 million/year, or more than half of the EU and UK population, with 3°C global warming. The rise in exposure to extreme heat is most severe in southern Europe. Assuming present vulnerability and no additional adaptation, annual fatalities from extreme heat could rise from 2,700 deaths/year now to approximately 30,000 and 50,000 by 2050 with 1.5°C and 2°C global warming, respectively. With 3°C in 2100, each year 90,000 Europeans could die from extreme heat. The rise in fatalities from extreme heat is more acute in southern European countries, with the highest number of fatalities occurring in France, Italy and Spain. With respect to cold waves, milder winters will reduce significantly exposure to and fatalities from extreme cold, which are already a fraction of the deaths from extreme heat. These projections do not account for the fact that the European population is ageing. The number of people above 65 years in the EU and UK will grow from 100 million now to 150 million by 2050, which could negatively affect human mortality from temperature extremes. Further, increasing urbanisation could amplify the urban heat island effect, which causes urban and metropolitan areas to be significantly warmer than their surrounding rural areas.” (S. 7)

Vitalität / Mortalitätseffekte

- “In recent years, about 14 billion tonnes of forest biomass in the EU and UK, or two third of the total biomass, was found to be potentially vulnerable to natural disturbances. Nearly half of that amount (46%) is threatened by windstorms, followed by forest fires (29%) and insect outbreaks (25%). Hotspot regions with high forest susceptibility to windstorms, fires and insect outbreaks are located in both southern and northern Europe. This spatial pattern is strongly controlled by the interplay of forest characteristics with the background climate. Over the last two decades, an increasing amount of forests in Europe has become vulnerable to insect outbreaks, particularly in high-latitude regions. The combination of rising temperature and changes in precipitation in the last two decades has likely reduced plant defence mechanisms and increased their vulnerability to insect outbreaks. No clear trends can be detected in the forest vulnerability to windstorms and fires over this period. Global warming is likely to increase natural disturbances in the future, especially those from fires and insect outbreaks that are more sensitive to climate. As a result, key forest ecosystem services - such as carbon sequestration, erosion control, water regulation or wood supply - could be seriously affected in the near future.” (S. 9f.)