nordwest2050 – Prospects for Climate-Adapted Innovation Processes in the Model Region Bremen-Oldenburg in North Western Germany | Umweltbundesamt

Two climate scenarios will be developed within this project: the so-called nordwest2050 climate scenarios. They include the requirements of all project partners concerning the temporal and spatial differentiation of relevant climate parameters. Current global and regional climate projections provide the basis for the scenarios, which are consolidated in close cooperation with the Climate Service Center 2.0. An ensemble approach is being pursued.

Expected climate change impacts for northwest Germany are such as:

• Increase of average air temperature of almost 3°C in 100 years
• Increasingly warmer and wetter winters
• Hotter and dryer summers
• Increasing probability of extreme heat waves during summer
• Intensification of heat island effect in cities
• Increasing probability of extreme heavy precipitation in particular during winter and spring
• Increase in winter precipitation of up to 20%
• Increase in wind speeds on average by 3,8% with essentially unchanged mean direction
• Increase in storm events and number of storm days on the coast
• Rise in sea level, the mean high tide, the water levels by wind surge effects and the storm surge water levels

Characteristic days for temperature and precipitation; climatic water balance, sunshine and cloud cover, tidal levels, etc

Climate change impacts will be different on global and regional level. Due to the accelerated sea-level rise and increased storm surges the northwest region of Germany with its North Sea coast including the Weser estuary, will be strongly affected by the climate change.

This research project focuses on the direct climate impacts in northwestern Germany on the one hand, on the other hand to those effects that have an impact on the region through its worldwide network. Possible consequences are such as shifts in markets, risks of raw material supply for industries (food and luxury food industry) and changes of transport routes. These shall be analyzed and operationalized by assuming different possible scenarios or development paths. It must be assumed that interference, failures and so on cannot always be prevented. 

The climate change impacts exacerbate the demands on the adaptability of socioeconomic and technical systems. An important first step within this project was therefore to analyze the vulnerability, of each of the affected socio-economic and technical systems regarding the climate change.

In addition to an appropriate alignment of regional economic structures and technical base systems, it will be analyzed as well how to increase the responsiveness to shifts at the global level which are currently not predictable. With a view to more dynamic framework conditions it is therefore also important to make the systems more adaptable and therefore more resilient.

Following the IPCC vulnerability is considered as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Resilience is considered as part of the innovation potential analysis.

The vulnerability analysis carried out has shown that climate change in the metropolitan region Bremen-Oldenburg is expected to be manageable at least in a medium-term perspective (2050). In most sectors, the vulnerability is low or medium. On the one hand, this is based on the fact that there will be comparatively moderate climate change for the region (with the exception of extreme events), resulting in rather low to medium-high impacts. Secondly, the regional social adaptive capacity is assessed as medium to high.

Due to fast rising water levels the vulnerability however is expected to be high for coastal protection in the long term (2100), as previous adaptation strategies may reach their limits. The vulnerability concerning the nature conservation is expected as medium to high due to limited natural adaptability, unstoppable shifting of species distribution and changing habitats as well as fixed protection objectives. Regarding the port industry a medium to high vulnerability is assessed which is in particular caused by critical infrastructures such as roads, railways and waterways. There are special vulnerabilities in the energy sector regarding the biomass production and in the field of power supply with an increasing share of renewable energies. Value chains in the food industry are generally expected to be low to medium vulnerable.

The vulnerability can be increased if on the one hand high damages caused by extreme weather events occur more frequent and simultaneously (which is hardly assessable currently) and when on the other hand conflicts and risks intensify in the region due to complex interactions between the adaptation needs.

Based on an analysis of the vulnerabilities and the potential for innovations, a regional and several sectoral roadmapping processes will be triggered which then result in defined innovation paths. The results of four working areas will be incorporated into the sectoral roadmaps:

1. Within the framework of the vulnerability analysis the importance of climate change for the region and its economy will be clarified.
2. The analysis of potential for innovations studies the climate change responding skills and potentials in the three economic clusters and the region
3. The working filed "Governance" investigates to which extent the regional existing cooperation and decision-making processes are suitable to implement climate change adaptation measures.
4. The innovation pathways constitutes the practical core: by 2014 concrete exemplary climate change adaptation projects will be jointly developed and implemented with practice partners.

The analysis of potential for innovations examines the skills and potentials that exist in the region or individual business clusters to address selected problems, to develop climate-adapted innovations and to possibly generate future markets by the region itself. The objective is to analyze and elaborate the regional technology and innovation potential in view of the northwest region and the three business clusters.

The "Roadmap of Change" focus on 2050

Due to the potential impact of climate change in the metropolitan region Bremen-Oldenburg, there will adaptation measures be necessary in the coastal, the rural and the urban areas. This means additional land requirements which can lead to conflicting objectives and land use competition between different sectoral interests. Thus the necessary and already initiated climate change adaptation in coastal protection will cause  intensified conflicts with for example the municipal-, commercial- and industrial land development, the development of infrastructure (roads, port facilities, etc.), nature conservation, agriculture and tourism in coastal and estuarine areas.

In rural areas, the increasing production of biomass for energetically use can be conflicting with the objectives of sustainable food production and (global) food security. In cities, trade-offs can get worse between a compact and thus emission reducing settlement development and the adequate open space development to ensure urban heat island effects.