UN Climate Conference COP30: No breakthrough, but small successes | Umweltbundesamt

On Saturday evening, 22 November 2025, the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Belém, Brazil, ended almost 27 hours late. Despite intense negotiations, the final text adopted by all states fell short of the goals set by the Brazilian COP presidency. At the start of COP30, Brazilian president Lula da Silva had set the ambitious goal of jointly agreeing on a path to phase out fossil fuels. Pressure for a successful COP also came from Brazilian civil society, especially the indigenous community, which organised numerous protests on the streets of Belém and even broke into the entrance to the conference halls on the evening of the second day of negotiations.

In the second week of negotiations, an alliance of more than 80 countries was formed to map out a concrete plan for the joint decision made at COP28 in Dubai in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels. However, in the end, no consensus could be reached among all countries on a roadmap for the global phase-out of fossil fuels. This was primarily due to strong resistance from oil- and gas-rich nations, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The US government did not even participate in the conference. Though COP30 did not achieve a breakthrough, in the closing plenary session, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago announced the creation of a roadmap for the phase-out of fossil fuels and a roadmap to halt deforestation during his remaining eleven months in office.

Ambitious alliance for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels

The momentum at COP30 clearly showed that a strong alliance of progressive states must take the lead in ⁠climate action⁠ in order to achieve joint progress in the future. Germany should join this alliance and, together with the EU, strengthen its own climate action ambition.

⁠"The outcome achieved in Brazil is far from ideal, mainly because it does not contain a clear statement and timeline for phasing out fossil fuels, thus falling short of the expectations expressed by Brazilian President Lula at the beginning of the conference. Oil and gas export interests of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US have blocked joint climate progress," says UBA President Dirk Messner. "China also prevented clear statements on phasing out fossil fuels. But against the backdrop of a fragmented geopolitical international arena, a voluntary agreement was at least reached to discuss a roadmap for such a phase-out. That is the silver lining and should not be underestimated. And it is better than no result at all."

He added: "Germany and the European Union must now work to get as many countries as possible on board to realise this roadmap in the coming years."

Without phasing out fossil fuels, neither the Paris temperature limit of 1.5°C nor well below 2°C of global warming can be achieved.

Slow but steady: climate negotiations are working

Given the seemingly disappointing outcome of Belém, the question arises as to what purpose the many arduous negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement serve. The answer: a great deal! Because the outcome of Belém also includes the adoption of a large number of detailed decisions that strengthen and further advance the implementation of the Paris Agreement, albeit slowly. For example, funding for ⁠adaptation to climate change⁠ is to be tripled by 2035, and the fund for loss and damage caused by climate change as well as the mechanism to support countries in a socially just transition have been made operational. Voluntary initiatives such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) are to help finance the protection of rainforests globally.

Ten years after Paris: a different future than expected before 2015

Before the Paris Agreement was adopted at the UN climate conference (COP21) in 2015, projections of global greenhouse gas emissions showed that the world was heading for a warming of at least 3.6°C by 2100. However, since 2015, the international climate agreement has led to a large number of individual measures of nationally implemented climate action, which taken together have had a major global impact.

This collective impact of the multilateral process is particularly evident in the strong expansion of renewable energies (especially solar and wind energy) and in significantly increased energy efficiency. Today's projections therefore show a clear improvement compared to those before the Paris Agreement was adopted: If the policies decided upon to date are continued and the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and long-term strategies submitted to date are implemented, global warming is projected to be around 2.6°C by 2100. Reducing global warming projections by one degree Celsius since 2015 leads to a very different future in terms of ⁠climate impacts⁠ such as crop failures due to droughts, sea level rise, floods and heat waves (see IPCC 2023). Nevertheless, even with current projections, we are still heading for a future with climate change impacts that humanity can hardly adapt to.

Can we still keep 1.5 degree within reach?

The decision of the Global Stocktake (GST) in 2023 included the goals of tripling global renewable energy capacity, doubling the annual rate of increase in energy efficiency, and substantially reducing emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, in particular methane - all by 2030. If these three goals were achieved and the necessary policies and the resulting shift away from fossil fuels were consistently pursued, global warming could be limited to 1.7°C (Climate Action Tracker 2025).

If the international community were to take further comprehensive measures – in particular, a global halt to deforestation and the strengthening of ecosystems as a whole in order to make greater use of them as CO₂ sinks – the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century could still be reached.

"The science is clear: if we do not slow down global warming, we will suffer from extreme weather events such as droughts, hurricanes, floods and heat waves, which will cause human and economic losses," says Messner. "Large ecosystems, such as the Greenland ice sheet or the Amazon rainforest system, could collapse. COP30 was not a turning point for finally setting a clear course towards climate neutrality."

All decision texts from COP30 are published in the ⁠UN⁠ languages on the website of the UN Climate Secretariat.