Effects chain – Example presentation from the ‘agriculture’ action field | Umweltbundesamt

Climate changes relevant to the action field

State: Air temperatures and fluctuations in weather patterns

The annual air temperature as an aggregated mean for Germany between 1881 and 2022 was determined statistically to have risen by 1.7 °C. Furthermore, in the course of the past 50 years, the speed of this temperature rise has distinctly increased. Prior to 2014 Germany had never had an annual mean temperature of more than 10 °C. By contrast since 2014 this value has been exceeded five times. However, as in the past, there is still a considerable range of fluctuations in weather patterns as well as many incalculable developments from year to year (cf. Mean values of climate change).

Impacts of climate change

Impact: LW-I-1 Agrophenological phase shifts

Climate change alters the seasonal flow of development in respect of agricultural crops. There are shifts occurring in agrophenological phases. This can have various consequences for various agricultural and horticultural crops. When there are late frosts after warm spring temperatures, this can affect quite well developed crops (for instance in fruit-farming), thus causing massive losses incurred as a result of frost. In other cases, however, for instance regarding winter cereals and winter rapeseed, an earlier development can entail advantages, for example in respect of managing pest organisms, or in crop rotation or the exploitation of residual moisture left over from the winter months.

Impact: LW-I-2 Yield fluctuations

The absolute yield levels achieved in Germany’s agriculture depend on many factors, not least (and in fact essential) on market-related circumstances. Nevertheless, at least in some regions of Germany, the climatic limits to any further increases in yields might be reached in the future. There is a more immediate relationship between weather patterns and interannual fluctuations, because there are limitations to the degree in which agriculture can adapt to extreme weather patterns. Since the turn of the millennium, strong interannual fluctuations have been observed regarding wheat and maize yields.

Adaptations – activities and results

Response: LW-R-4 Cultivation of thermophilic crops

In respect of arable crops, there are opportunities to respond to changing climate and weather conditions by means of selecting suitable crop species and varieties. Apart from preventing yield losses, the changing conditions also open up new business options for agricultural businesses. In that context, the cultivation of soy, durum wheat and grain maize is becoming increasingly attractive in Germany where temperatures are rising, and the terrain used for these crops is expanding. As far as pulses such as soy are concerned, the agropolitical framework conditions are currently favourable, as the cultivation of these crops is being sponsored heavily by the Federal government’s protein plant cultivation strategy.