Outlook Research – Research on global change: Climate change: Time to act

Background and Goals

The series “Outlook Earth” introduces information on BMBF-funded “Global Change Research” and offers contacts as a starting point for future research.

The edition 03/2015 deals with climate change and ways on how to deal with it. The Climate Change Conference in Paris has an ambitious goal: for the first time, a globally binding climate mitigation agreement is to be signed. The main finding of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) thus makes such a decision more urgent than ever: global warming is accelerating, and its main driving force is humankind.

The contents of Outlook Earth “Climate change: Time to act” serve as points of reference for continuing research, and presents four examples of BMBF funding.

Content time

Research area/region

Country
  • transnational
  • Brasilien
  • Germany
  • Peru
Spatial resolution 

Furthermore, Presented Projects deal with Africa, or are located in the Amazonas rain forest area (Brasil. French Guiana, Suriname, Guiana, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia), North- und East sea coast

Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change

Step 1: Understand and describe climate change

Approach and results 

At the 21st Climate Summit (COP 21), a modern, fair and contemporary agreement will be negotiated designed to engage all countries to take climate mitigation measures. In addition to climate change mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology and capacity building will also be discussed. The negotiations are the findings of the most recent IPCC report. The results show namely that despite previous mitigation efforts global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase as a result of population and economic growth. At the same time, the research results show that very ambitious mitigation measures would allow us to limit global warming to less than 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

The IPCC informs about the impacts of climate  change on all continents, in all ecosystems, human societies and not least its significance for human health. In its most recent report the IPCC increasingly addressed the world’s oceans.

CO2 is the main driver of global temperature increase, and it also dissolves in seawater thus causing ocean acidification. At the same time, the increased warming, stratification and eutrophication of the ocean cause a loss of oxygen to varying degrees depending on region.

In cases where warming, acidification and oxygen depletion join forces to form a “deadly trio”, marine species are particularly at risk to climate change.

Parameter (climate signals)
  • Higher average temperatures
  • Sea level rise und storm surges
  • Extreme precipitation (incl. hail, snow)
  • Dry periods
Further times 

2080-2100 (long term period)

Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact

Approach and results 

An identified risk is flooding in settlement areas, which affects human lives and high economic losses. This is due to an increasing urbanization and increasing sea level and peak river discharges.

Reduced water availability is also an identified risk and is characterized by significant water availability from river abstraction and from groundwater resources combined with increased water demand. 

Another risk is heat waves which results in high economic losses. Human lives are also affected by heat events, which have effects on health issues, impacts on welfare, labor productivity, agricultural production and air quality.

Step 3: Develop and compare measures

Measures and/or strategies 

For the sector energy refer to the Kopernikus projects. Within the” Koperniukus projects for the energy economy”, Academics, Economy and the civil society developed common solutions for the alteration of the energy economy.  It is the most important research initiative by Federal Ministry of Education and Research  (BMBF), in which new energy systems and concepts are being developed.

The rain forest is an essential CO2-sotrage. A brasilian-german cooperation made the construction of a measurement tower “Amazonian Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO)“ in the Amazon rainforest area possible, in which data for hazard potential and the importance of the forest fort he climate can be collected. Furthermore results can be data for greenhouse balancing such as data for the correlation of land surface with the atmosphere. 

Liveable and competitive cities need functioning infrastructures. Urban populations are, however, rising so rapidly that many local administrations are unable to provide adequate systems for the provision of electricity, water, sewerage etc. Cities in emerging and developing countries are particularly affected by these challenges, as they are often already under-supplied. The research project Rapid Planning will now develop instruments that allow rapidly growing urban centres to offer potential solutions for improved management within a short period of time.

The project COMTESS evaluates the consequences of climate change on conventional and innovative and assesses ecological, economic and sociological analyses.

Participants

Funding / Financing 

Funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

Project management 

Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

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Fields of action:
 buildings  coastal and marine protection  energy infrastructure  soil  woodland and forestry  other