CECILIA - Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment - Periodic activity report | Umweltbundesamt

"The European corn borer (ECB) will benefit from expected temperature increase and prolonged growing season. At the same time, the emergence of bivoltine populations and a further increase to a third generation in the warmest areas is indicated. The lowland areas presently occupied by the univoltine population are likely to be replaced by a bivoltine population, which only slightly exceeds the original areal of univoltine one. HadCM-high presumes the prevailing increase of about one generation, which will probably result in the presence of a third generation in the eastern part of Austria, north of Italy, and western part of Germany (Rhine valley), where there are currently two generations per season. The NCAR-PCM-high scenario assumes a wider spread, covering a major part of Hungary, Croatia, and the whole simulated part of Italy. Significantly, a third generation is predicted to emerge in 17.8% of arable land in the domain (NCAR-PCMhigh), which has serious implications on production risk." (p. 89)
"A gradient with lower values in the north and higher values in the south is observed. The highest values are found over the Mediterranean Sea. With climate change, the AOT40c values are increasing. The highest increase occurs in Northern Italy and over the Iberian Peninsula. With present day conditions (1991-2000) the critical level for crops (9,000 ppb h) is not exceeded north of the Alps and the Black Sea. In the calculation with future climate (2091-2100) the AOT40c values become higher and the limiting line of 9,000 ppb h is shifted to the north causing exceedances of critical level for crops in the majority of CEE countries with no exceedances in present climate. These are: Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria." (p. 116)

"Results of comparison between pollutant levels for control and for future periods given as differences in Figs. 112-114 (middle and right panels) show that climate change impacts on air pollution levels are small to moderate, and have different direction depending on pollutant concerned. For PM, decrease in concentrations (up to -3.5 μg/m3) in future decades relative to control period in most of the countries is predicted. The exception of that trend is noted only for the Northern Germany, where slight increase in 2041-2050 period is observed. For SO2 higher concentrations (up to 3.5 μg/m3) are predicted in the future. The highest increase is expected for Upper Silesia region in Poland as well as for Northern Hungary." (p. 124)