CECILIA - Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment | Umweltbundesamt

Quantification of climate projections based on regional climate models with a scale of 10 x 10 km, using downscaling methods. Scenarios are developed in conjunction with the ENSEMBLES project

changed weather patterns, climate variability

The following climate effects are analysed and evaluated:

•  Consequences for the hydrological cycle with effects on water management and water resources;
•  Consequences for water quality due to changed nutrient composition and concentration, as well as eutrophication effects in rivers and reservoirs used for drinking water and as recreation areas;
•  Consequences of extreme events such as floods or drought for the Elbe and Danube drainage basins;
•  Consequences for agriculture, such as changed production conditions, yields and product qualities, with an impact on regional economies;
•  Consequences for forestry due to changed growth rates of trees and consequences of changes in air pollution for forests;
• Consequences of changed occurrence and activity of pests and illnesses for selected crop plants and forest ecosystems;
•  Consequences of a changed carbon cycle for agriculture and forest ecosystems;
•  Impact of heat waves on the health of the population and the healthcare system;
•  Changes in air quality in urban areas of the heavily industrialised Czech Republic, Poland and Germany border region ("Black Triangle").

Sensitivity analyses are performed for selected agricultural crop plants and for forest stocks susceptible to climate change.

Based on an assessment of current water resource and water requirement management, adaptation measures have been developed. In addition, adaptation recommendations and management options for improve land use systems have been developed to increase agricultural production and enhance forest management.