NorADAPT - Community Adaptation and Vulnerability in Norway
Background and Goals
The specific, interacting natural, socio-economic and political conditions to which municipalities in Norway are sensitive have not been comprehensively documented, either for separate municipalities or in comparison with other municipalities. Moreover, neither the adaptive strategies employed to deal with changing conditions in municipalities, nor their effectiveness, have been assessed. The conditions that might facilitate or constrain the adaptive capacity and resilience of municipalities in the face of ongoing and interacting climate and socio-economic changes have yet to be identified. Although substantial information has been gathered about local knowledge with respect to climate change, it has yet to be integrated systematically with scientific knowledge. Research on vulnerability and adaptation is not well connected to decision-making or policy development at any level.
Objectives
Contribution to identifying how projected climate changes interact with changes in socio-economic and institutional conditions, and how these interactions shape vulnerability and adaptation at the local level in Norway.
Content time
toResearch area/region
Country
- Norway
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
Data is collected on the respective local climate of selected locations in Norway, for which long-term records already exist. Data is also generated from a regional climate model (RCM) that covers the relevant region in each case. The RCM model has a spatial resolution of 24 km and runs for a 40-year period, representing both today's climate and that of scenarios projected for the 21st century. At least two emission scenarios will be applied, probably the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2.
Parameter (climate signals)
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Sea level rise und storm surges
Further Parameters
The RCM model represents daily values of a large range of climate elements including temperature, precipitation, snow, air pressure, wind direction and speed, wave height and storm surges.
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
All Norwegian cities will be evaluated to arrive at a limited number of local vulnerability profiles (for example, cities vulnerable to snow avalanches or floods). These categories will provide the basis for selecting a local vulnerability profile for a more in-depth study.
Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances
Approach and results
NorADAPT will use an indicator-based model for assessing the vulnerability of a selection of cities to climate change. This model was developed at Western Norway Research Institute and a pilot project was carried out at the regional level. NorADAPT will build on these findings and further develop the model to make it usable at the local level. Both local and national stakeholders will be involved and a thorough scientific adaptation and vulnerability assessment will be undertaken.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Measures and/or strategies
The project focuses on how effective local adaptation strategies can be developed. It will include suggestions on how to reduce the inherent uncertainties and trade-offs in local vulnerability assessments, and will provide information about how to respond to decisions under different uncertainty types.
Time horizon
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Participants
Funding / Financing
Research Council of Norway
Project management
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research- Oslo (CICERO)
Cooperation/Partners
Western Norway Research Institute (WNRI);
Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no)
Contact
CICERO (Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo/Senter for klimaforskning)
Sognsveien 68
N-0318 Oslo
