Mistra-SWECIA - Swedish Research Programme on Climate, Impacts and Adaptation | Umweltbundesamt

The climate models used in the first project are:

- EC-EARTH: This is an Earth System Model that has been developed by a consortium of European Weather Services and university groups. It is based on the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and currently consists of a model for the atmosphere and a model for the ocean that communicate with each other through the Oasis coupler. Additional modules (chemistry, vegetation) are in development.

- RCA: A regional climate model.

- EMICs(Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity) describe most of the processes implicit in comprehensive climate models, albeit in a simpler form. They explicitly simulate the interactions among several components of the climate system, including biogeochemical cycles, and at the same time they are simple enough to allow for long-term climate simulations. Just as with the comprehensive models, but in contrast to simple energy-balance models, the number of degrees of freedom of an EMIC exceeds the number of adjustable parameters by several orders of magnitude.

all parameters of the climate models

An essential part of Mistra-SWECIA is to better understand the feedbacks between the human economic system and the natural climate system over long periods of time. To do that requires models of the two-way interaction between these two global systems. It is important to account for regional disparities, both on the economic side and the climate side. Because people in different regions live under different social and economic conditions, even the same amount of global climate change would affect different regions in different ways. Moreover, regional climates will change in different ways from the global mean.

One work package in project 4 investigates the current preparedness and ability of government and private stakeholders to incorporate climate adaptation in their day-to-day and longer-term policies and strategies. In addition, it analyses to what institutional, cultural and policy factors the differences in social learning and adaptive capacity can be attributed. The work package identifies barriers and opportunities for integrating climate adaptation into economic sectors, and explores the roles and responsibilities of different stakeholders in removing the barriers and seizing the opportunities, thus promoting such integration.

Project 4 is aimed at improving our knowledge of what makes people and organizations adapt successfully, and how they might overcome possible barriers to a successful adaptation. The project starts from the premise that the results of climate and impact models, whilst effective in raising stakeholders' awareness of the need to act, are insufficient to inform adaptation decisions. If they are to be used effectively, model results must be complemented by an understanding of how stakeholders make decisions. Project 4 therefore analyses the process of adaptation.