KüstenKlima – Different Planning Instruments for a Better Coordination of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation on the German Coast | Umweltbundesamt

To analyze the vulnerability for the four case study regions average tendencies and ranges of several regional climate models have been used. Sources of these models:

• ClimateImpactsOnline (http://www.climateimpactsonline.com/): Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline Meteorologische Dienstleistungen GmbH: Various coordinated and established models developed by the PIK form the data basis for the predictions of the portal (STARS, SWIM, IRMA & 4C - FORESEE). Due to the relative uncertainty of climate projections 100 different projections (realizations) have been developed for the portal. Realization 50 was used within the project. It reflects the average tendency (median) of the range of all the projections.
• North German Climate Atlas (http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de/): North German Climate Office of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht

The North German Climate Atlas is based on climate calculations for Northern Germany. These had been done by using dynamic regional climate computer models such as COSMO-CLM, REMO and RCAO for example. Different IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios have been used as well to calculate the climate for Northern Germany. These include models. In the regional climate computer models each with created by the have been received.

Based on these and further sources following changes for the German coastal regions are expected:

• The average temperature will rise and periods of hot weather will become more frequent, although this will be less strong or longer near the coast than in the southern German regions.
• The annual rainfall will increase only slightly, but the distribution during the year will shift: decreasing rainfall in the summer and a significant increase in winter.
• The storm intensity will increase, especially in the winter months.
• By the end of the century a global sea level increase of 26 to 82 cm is to be expected. Stronger storm intensities can also, in addition to sea-level rise, increase the storm tide levels (10 to 30 cm on the North Sea coast for example). Increasing wave heights are likely as well.

To analyze the climate change impacts for the four case study regions vulnerability analyses had been performed. Regarding different sectors the following challenges need to be expected:

Coastal protection: In the long term lowlands are threatened by long-lasting flooding due to the sea level rise. In addition, the rising sea level and increasing storm tide water levels will lead to a stronger erosion of steep coasts. Expecting a sea level rise of about 1.5 cm per year, a decrease in tidal flats can be assumed. Resulting problems include increasing damage to dikes, coastal structures and infrastructure, high cost of the necessary development of coastal protection and the need for adaptation of infrastructure and land use.

Water management: Due to the decrease in rainfall during summer and more frequent periods of hot weather, an increase of drought can be expected. At the same time increasing precipitation during winter in combination with increasing heavy rain events causes higher demands on drainage in dyked areas. Areas drained only by pumps or pumping stations will increase in future.

Agriculture: There are both positive and negative impacts of climate change concerning the agricultural sector. Warmer temperatures may lead to increases in yield, but lasting periods of hot weather and droughts also to yield losses. Caused by shifts in the species composition of pathogens and pests, a higher vulnerability of crops may occur (as well as in animal husbandry). Additionally, the yield risk increases by the expected increase in extreme weather events such as hail, heavy rain and storm. Within the framework of the energy turnaround a growing competition in land use between the production of biomass for energy production and the agricultural food and feed production is expected.

Nature conservation: Changing climatic conditions will have various effects on species and habitats on land, in water and in marine ecosystems. There will be a spatial shift of species and their composition. Beside the direct impacts of climate change, changes in land use, considerable additional land consumptions (for settlements and transport) and the increased consumption of biomass energy in combination with ploughing up of grassland, drainage and eutrophication (nitrate) causes considerable impacts on nature and landscape.

Tourism: Climate change involves risks and opportunities for the tourism sector. Firstly, increasing atmospheric and water temperatures and a lower precipitation probability during summer, causes extended swimming seasons. At the same time there will be warmer temperatures along the German coast compared to southern destinations in future which might raise the attractiveness for visitors. On the other hand, there might be negative consequences for tourism along the German coasts due to a deterioration of water quality since higher water temperatures can also cause an increased algal growth for example. Storms can cause erosion of beaches and lead to more flotsam that is washed up on the beaches.

Concerning the case study regions the following risks and opportunities need to be expected in future:

District of Aurich: Higher vulnerability to heavy rainfall and increasing rainfall as the drainage of dyked and some very low-lying areas will become more difficult. Due to the rising sea level, this problem will be exacerbated. Due to its physiographic composition, nature protection and biodiversity concerns are highly vulnerable to climate change. At the same time, however, there is a relatively high adaptive capacity caused by the large protected areas in this region that already exist. Especially increasing conflicts of use regarding the water management and agriculture will intensify the vulnerability. The increasing cultivation of biomass for energy production plays a role on that matter as well.

Planning Association of Pomerania: Especially during summery droughts there will be an increased vulnerability along the coastline, caused by a higher touristic use as expected in future and therefore an increasing pressure on the locally limited water resources. Coastal erosions, coastal dynamics and losses of land will increase as well as a consequence of sea level rise.

Kiel Fjord and Bay of Lübeck: Heavy rain events and increasing winter precipitation will cause a higher vulnerability here. For one thing, there will be increased erosions in gently-sloped areas and for another thing the drainage needs to be ensured causing as little damage as possible. Coastal erosions, coastal dynamics and losses of land will increase as well as a consequence of sea level rise.

Office Eiderstedt: There are a number of land use conflicts between nature conservation, agriculture and water management in Eiderstedt. These will be exacerbated by climate change, as increase in extreme rainfall events is expected which needs to be drained. In addition, more frequent and longer droughts will occur. Sea level rise and thus a relative lowering of dyked inland, intensifies the drainage problem in addition. In particular natural wetlands are negatively affected by increasing temperatures and droughts and thus special protection efforts are needed.

In addition to the risks there will be opportunities as well for German coastal regions along the North and Baltic Sea. Compared to southern federal states there will be impacts of climate change which might be favorable for tourism and agriculture, such as a longer tourist- and growing season.

The sea level rise presents a major challenge for all four case study regions. Here, the early development of effective adaptation measures in coastal protection is required.

In terms of all of the four case study regions, the early development of effective adaptation measures and strategies as well as planning provision is necessary. Concerning the spatial planning being cross section oriented and having formal and informal instruments there are options for actions at national and regional level, such as:

• preventing new buildings in flood-prone areas
• securing premises for future expansion of facilities necessary for coastal protection
• definition of objectives and principles regarding nature and landscape or agriculture and forestry in order to enable a groundwater-friendly land use and protect carbon sinks
• reserving land for nature protection in order to counter the loss of biodiversity
• supporting climate-friendly land use for agriculture
• maintenance and construction of open spaces, fresh air corridors and cold air generating areas in cities in order to reduce the increasing heat load
• designation of suitable areas for wind power installations in regions which are low of conflicts
• working towards a land- and energy-saving development of settlement and transport infrastructure
• considering interactions between measures on climate mitigation and adaptation

More possibilities for each field of action can be found within the four case studies.

The results of the project are recommendations for the implementation of ICM and recommendations for spatial planning as well as information on financing of measures.

Short-, middel- and long-term needs for action had been identified

Along the German coastal zones there is a high pressure of land use from agriculture, tourism and settlement activity already. These are environmentally sensitive areas, of which large parts are protected and therefore common goals must be appointed to protect these landscapes on the one hand while considering the various user interests on the other.

Additionally climate change meets the coastal zones which require measures to mitigate and to adapt to its impacts. This presents additional challenges for the use of land and resources in the German coastal regions.Many of the existing conflicts of utilization can be intensified by the impacts of climate change or by measures to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Likewise, synergies can occur and should be used.