ClimateImpactsOnline
Background and Goals
ClimateImpactsOnline is being developed jointly by Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the company WetterOnline Meteorologische Dienstleistungen GmbH as a part of the CIES (Climate Impact Expert System) project.
Objective of the web portal is to visualize possible consequences of climate change in Germany concerning the climate, agriculture and forestry, areas of hydrology, energy, tourism and health. Therefore the possibility is given to consider a variety of parameters such as temperature, crop yields or risk of forest fires for example. There are data available for the period 1901-2010 (observed data) and 2011-2100 (simulation data). The parameters selected are shown as color maps for Germany. These information are free for the user of the portal and it thus provides the basis for specific adaptation options in the various sectors.
Content time
Research area/region
Country
- Germany
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
- Baden-Württemberg
- Bavaria
- Berlin
- Brandenburg
- Bremen
- Hamburg
- Hesse
- Mecklenburg Western Pomerania
- Lower Saxony
- Northrhine-Westphalia
- Rhineland Palatinate
- Saarland
- Saxony
- Saxony-Anhalt
- Schleswig-Holstein
- Thuringia
Natural spatial classification
- Alp and North Bavarian hills
- Alps
- Alpine Foothills
- Erz Mountains, Thuringian Forest and Bavarian Forest
- coasts: North Sea-/Baltic Sea coasts
- Low mountain ranges left and right of Rhine
- North-East German lowland
- North-West German lowland
- Upper Rhine Rift
- South-Eeastern basin and hills
- West German lowland bay
- Central low mountain ranges and Harz
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
To cover the range of possible future climate changes, two emission scenarios have been used: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013).
The regionalization of the climate scenarios was conducted using the regional climate model STARS developed at PIK. The input for STARS was the average temperature development over Germany between the years 2011 and 2100 as projected by 21 GCMs.
For each RCP-scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6)*, the largest (high), smallest (low) and median temperature increase was determined. For each of the three temperature developments, the temperature trend for each of the reference stations was calculated and used as input for the STARS model. Finally, for each RCP scenario three model runs were conducted with a 1000 realizations each. From those 1000 realizations, 100 were selected based on the weighted trend of the climatological water balance. Those data sets are the basis for the climatological analysis as well as input data for the simulations of climate impacts.
The regional climate impact has been identified nationwide concerning the sectors agriculture, forestry and water balance. This was done by using a model chain developed at PIK. The links of the model chain are: "STARS STAtistical Analoge Resampling Scheme", "SWIM Soil and Water Intergrated Model", "IRMA Integrated Regional Assessment Model" and "4C-FORESEE Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment".
Parameter (climate signals)
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Sea level rise und storm surges
- Extreme precipitation (incl. hail, snow)
- Dry periods
Further Parameters
Minimum temperature, global radiation, water balance, duration of sunshine, snow depth, duration of snow days >10 cm and >30cm, number of snow days >10cm and >30cm, summer days and duration, days without precipitation, hot days and duration, frost days and duration, ice days and durations and duration of days with heavy precipitation
Further times
Reference periods for 1901-2100;
decades will be considered: in addition the difference of decades is selectable
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
Climate impacts concerning the following sectors and corresponding parameters will be visualized:
- Agriculture: Huglin Index, wine budburst, wine flowering, wine ripening, wine harvest ripe, late frost risk, yield winter wheat, yield silage maize, yield winter rye, aspen short-rotation coppice, black locust short-rotation coppice
- Forestry: bud burst (beech, oak, birch), fire danger index, drought index (beech, Douglas fir, oak, spruce, pine), NPP and stem increment (beech, Douglas fir, oak, spruce, pine)
- Water: evapotranspiration, ground water recharge, total runoff
- Energy: photovoltaic
- health and tourism: hot and humid days, swimming days
The online platform serves as a tool for the development of adaptation measures.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Time horizon
- 2011–2040 (near future)
- 2021–2050 (near future)
- 2036–2065
- 2051–2080 (far future)
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Participants
Funding / Financing
funded within the framework of the project "CIES - Climate Impact Expert System" at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and by "Climate-KIC Knowledge & Innovation Community"
Project management
The web portal ClimeImpacts is a joint product of the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research e. V. and WetterOnline Meteorologische Dienstleistungen GmbH.
Cooperation/Partners
Humbolt-Universität zu Berlin, Brandenburg, „eit: Climate_KIC“
Contact
PIK – Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Telegraphenberg A 31
14473 Potsdam
