ImmoRisk – Risk assessment of future climate effects in the real estate and housing industry | Umweltbundesamt

The climate projections are examined in cooperation with the DWD (German Meteorological Service).

extreme weather events

until 2100

Not only do extreme weather events pose a risk to specific property locations as well as buildings in general – an increase in weather extremes will even affect the individual structural components used for building, in the sense of functional limitations on the one hand, and an increase in investment costs on the other hand due to an increase in risk insurance premiums (in other words, the possible return on invested capital will deteriorate). The one factor that all these possible risks have in common is that the location of a property will play a decisive role with regard to the adaptation measures that can be implemented against a particular climate effect.

Risk management in the form of structural changes and modifications can reduce the extent of the expected damage, but this is only possible in conjunction with an additional cost burden on the individual property owners. At the heart of the matter, the stakeholders in the housing and real estate industry lack reliable information for identifying, analysing and evaluating risks inherent in the climate change that is necessary to support property selection, development and investment decisions.

With regard to the individual climate effects, the risk assessment is a three-stage process:

1. The probability of occurrence of a particular climate effect must be determined with reference to geographical location and time horizon;
2. The location-specific or structure-specific damage extent needs to be estimated;
3. A building-specific cost estimate of the expected damage must be performed.

A monetary valuation of possible damages is taken into account in the tool in the form of a yearly loss; the GIS-tool automatically determines the risk level for the climate risks considered based on the geographical location data entered.

The focus lies on the analysis and evaluation of the risks of the climate change for the real estate and housing industry. The planned information system can identify regions in which adaptation measures will become necessary (raising the awareness of the stakeholders involved). A transparent presentation of risks is particularly important for private owners, since these have other investment horizons and, in the case of self-occupancy, other tax possibilities, compared to professional real estate and housing investment companies, which work with investment horizons of between 30 and 50 years.