BACC – BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin
Background and Goals
The BACC project (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin), is part of the international Baltic Sea Experiment research project (BALTEX), and is coordinated by the International BALTEX Secretariat located at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG) in Geesthacht, Germany. BACC is an ongoing review of the current and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region, taking into account the consequences for the marine and terrestrial ecosystems as well as the human population. This baseline study, in which more than 80 scientists from 13 countries are participating, is a regional "assessment" along the lines of the IPCC reports, with the aim of advising local decision makers and stakeholders, and supporting them in their decisions. Therefor a climate report will document the climate changes observed so far, describe future change scenarios and estimate the effects on the environment in the Baltic Sea region.
Content time
Research area/region
Country
- Germany
Natural spatial classification
- coasts: North Sea-/Baltic Sea coasts
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
For the Baltic Sea region, the results of regional and global climate models are employed. The project works with the "Coupled Model Intercomparison Project" (CMIP: http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip/).
Results:
- air temperatures in the Baltic Sea region could rise by as much as five degrees Celsius by the year 2100;
- drastically reduced ice cover in the Baltic Sea up to 85%;
- precipitation changes will vary regionally, but with an overall expected increase;
- wetter winters overall;
- considerable increase in precipitation throughout the year in the northern Baltic Sea region (between 25% and 75%);
- significant decrease in precipitation in the southern areas (up to 45%) during the summer;
- the global rise in sea levels will have its effect in the Baltic Sea, but will be partly compensated for in the northern areas by the postglacial uplift of the land masses.
Parameter (climate signals)
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Sea level rise und storm surges
Further Parameters
The climate change scenarios are based on meteorological, oceanographic, hydrological, and cryospheric variables
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
Climate change results are:
- higher water temperatures and decreased salinity will affect the entire ecosystem of the Baltic Sea region;
- changes in the growth rates of various groups of organisms will lead to a string of complex reciprocal effects that are difficult to predict (this will also affect commercially important fish species, such as cod);
- although a reduced ice cover could be beneficial for shipping, it would threaten populations of animals such as the Baltic ringed seal;
- on land, the vegetation will probably benefit and spring will start earlier.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Time horizon
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Step 5: Watch and evaluate adaptation (monitoring and evaluation)
Approach, objective and results of the monitoring and/or evaluation
The project continuously monitors changes and impacts of climate change in the Baltic region: currently runs BACC II (2009 to 2014).
Participants
Project management
BALTEX-secretary at Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG)
Cooperation/Partners
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research (HZG);
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute;
Göteborg University;
Finnish Meteorological Institute;
Lund University;
Russian State Hydrological Institute;
University of Turku
Contact
BALTEX-secretary at Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG)
Max-Planck-Straße 1
21502 Geesthacht
Germany
