Effects chain – Example presentation from the ‘tourism’ action field | Umweltbundesamt

Climate changes relevant to the action field

State: Annual mean of air temperature

Global climate warming is evident in Germany too, as shown by increasing mean air temperatures. The areal mean indicates that for the annual mean, air temperatures rose by 1.5 % from 1881 to 2022. In other words, global warming is clearly accelerating. In the course of the past five decades, the temperature increase amounted to 0.38 °C per decade, which is more than three times higher than the value of 0.12 °C per decade averaged over the entire period since 1881. It can be stated that since the 1960s, every decade was warmer in Germany than the decade before. Nine of the ten warmest years in Germany were recorded since the turn of the millennium. (cf. Mean Values of climate changes).

Impacts of climate change

Impact: TOU-I-1: Coastal bathing temperatures

The seawater temperature has also risen in the course of past decades (cf. Indicator KM-I-1). On the North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts this has a positive effect on the duration of the potential bathing period; in other words – the time period in which the seawater temperature potentially makes a bathing holiday or bathing activities possible. Usually in June suitable temperature conditions will set in which last well into the month of October. Since the 1980s, the first potential bathing days have occurred earlier and earlier every year, while the last suitable days occur later and later, extending into autumn. Despite some considerable fluctuations from year to year, the duration of the potential bathing period on North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts has been getting significantly longer.

Adaptations – activities and results

Response: TOU-R-1: Seasonality of bed-nights in wider tourism areas

For many tourism destinations in Germany, the development of more favourable climatic conditions may provide opportunities for the extension of touristic offerings and for increasing the demand for cross-seasonal tourism. Above all, destinations which have so far had a strong seasonal focus, are thus able to become less dependent on a core season tied to specific touristic activities and attractions. In Germany, this is true in particular for wider tourism areas on the coasts where seasonality – measured in terms of the ratio between bed-nights during months of peak demand and the month of lowest demand of a calendar year – is most distinct. In 2019 occupancy rates ranged from just under 2 million in January to more than 12 million in July. According to tourism statistics for the summer half-year (May to October) the percentage of bed-nights amounted to almost three quarters (73 %) of all bed-nights per year.

In coastal regions, as indeed in all other wider tourism areas in Germany, the seasonality of demand for overnight accommodation has decreased significantly. This indicates an increasing capacity utilisation of bed-nights throughout the year in contrast with the hitherto much lower number of bed-nights in some months of the year. Insofar as this is linked to increasing independence from individual months which are particularly in demand for vacations, this can be assessed as a favourable adaptation to climate change opening up new opportunities.