Effects chain – Example presentation from ‘civic protection’ action field | Umweltbundesamt

Climate changes relevant to the action field

State: Extreme events

In Germany heavy rain is one of the extreme weather phenomena which have a particularly strong potential of putting people’s lives and infrastructures at risk. Spatial and temporal variability of heavy rain, and the fact that such events are associated with problems of measurability, make it difficult to make solid forecasts of trends. However, it is safe to predict that climate change is likely to bring about an increase in heavy-rain events and concomitant intensity. On one hand, higher temperatures warm up the air which enables it to absorb greater amounts of water vapour. On the other hand, the associated meteorological changes bring about the intensification of processes which trigger precipitation. DWD records indicate that in recent years heavy rain occurred, at least regionally, with greater frequency (cf. Precipitation extremes).

Impacts of climate change

Impact: BS-I-1 Person hours due to weather-related damage events

In cases of severe natural hazards, emergency crews are mobilised by civic protection organisations, in order to rescue humans from emergency situations arising in affected areas, to secure provisioning and to avoid or remedy any damage. The organisations involved in civic protection and their volunteers are facing ever-increasing peaks of strain resulting from rising numbers of weather-related and weather-pattern related call-outs. Apart from violent storms the deployment situation seems to be characterised especially by flood events due to heavy rain. The most recent severe flooding scenario that kept volunteers on their toes took place in July 2021 in the Ahr valley.

Adaptations – activities and results

Response: BS-R-4 Active emergency relief responders in civic protection

In order to meet the increasing demand for disaster relief responders and to reduce the strain imposed on volunteers – resulting from frequent call-outs owing to climate change – the organisations involved in civic protection have been stepping up their recruitment measures. And this has been rewarded with success: In 2021 there were 50,000 more individuals active in fire brigades and THW than just five years before. It is also true to say that adverse working conditions and particular challenges during the worldwide Covid-19 pandemic did not entail a marked decline in membership numbers.

Response: BS-R-2 Precautions taken among the population

The population’s own precautionary measures play a crucial role in supporting the emergency relief responders. A person who has taken precautionary measures requires less assistance and can sometimes take the pressure off emergency relief responders by providing assistance themselves. The organisations concerned can provide information on the risks involved and give advice on how to behave in an emergency; they can also make suggestions for effective precautionary measures. In the 2021 environmental awareness survey more than two thirds of respondents stated that they would take what they consider as sufficient precautionary measures of their own. This is the highest value since the launching of these surveys in 2012.