Preliminary studies for a spatial adaption strategy in a changing climate | Umweltbundesamt

The conclusion of the project with respect to regional high-resolution climate scenarios is that the climate model REMO (MPI Hamburg) currently provides the best available data set for deriving adaptation strategies for spatial development. For the REMO climate model, results are available at a resolution of 0.088° (10 x 10kms grid size) for the period from 1950 to 2100, based on the IPCC emission scenarios A1B, A2, and B1.

wind and storms, extreme events

2100

High resolution climate scenarios show that the consequences of the climate change differ significantly from one region to the next. Some individual regions will be more strongly affected than others by natural hazards, such as extreme floods, drought, urban heat effects, high-wind events, mass movements (including mudslides, rock falls, avalanches), or by the economic consequences of changes in the agriculture, forestry, energy, tourism or transport sectors.

The preliminary study concerns itself with the consequences of the climate change in Germany that are relevant to spatial development:

• Gradual changes: Increasing loss of topsoil through water erosion, increasing threat to biodiversity, increasing fluctuation of groundwater levels, limited tap water resources;
• Extreme events: More frequent dry periods and heat waves, more frequent heavy rainfall and flash floods, changes in frequency and intensity of river floods, more frequent and higher storm surge levels, increasing risk of gravitative landslides, increasing risk of forest fires, more frequent disturbance and destruction of infrastructure.

The potential regional exposure can be determined by comparing the existing information about the regional occurrence of climate change effects that are relevant to spatial planning and the local sensitivity. An overlapping of different climate effects shows a particularly large exposure to problems caused by rising summer temperatures and declining summer precipitation.

The evaluation suggests an concentration of exposure along the Rhine and in the Alpine Foreland, but the emergence of considerable exposure can also be expected in East Germany. When individual effects are considered, such as the increasing risk of forest fires, this exposure to impacts becomes even more pronounced. In contrast, exposure to the effects of increased precipitation in winter and extreme precipitation will especially occur in the North German Plain and along the North Sea coast. Particularly here, the combination of storm surge hazards and a probable increase of extreme precipitation (especially as a result of winter storms) will increase the potential exposure.

The preliminary study has produced an overview of the potential in spatial development for the prevention and adaptation to climate change, with regard to the need for action. In the analysis performed, the broad range of possible - existing - instruments and potential areas of action for spatial development will be considered, regardless of the extent to which they may already have been implemented or tested in practice. Both the adaptation to climate change and climate protection are included.

With regard to the need for action against the climate change in spatial planning, the following tasks have been identified for implementing the modelling projects in the model regions:

1. Implementation and practical evaluation of the regional adaptation strategies;
2. Further development and application of specific instruments and measures;
3. Platform for discussion processes with the affected receptors, in order to increase the legitimization and acceptance of the measures and thereby increase their chances for implementation.

Background and aims: Due to the importance of the climate to the economy, the adaptation of the spatial and land use structures to the impacts of the climate change is an essential element of sustainable spatial development. This gives rise to new demands on spatial planning. In future, spatial development will need to coordinate the intensifying conflicts between the different spatial requirements. At the same time, it has the task of initiating the development of climate-proof spatial and land use structures.

The need for adaptation to the climate change demands the development of medium-and long-term concepts that include (preventive) climate protection measures, as well as climate change adaptation measures. The evaluation of the existing regional plans proves the existence of a broad and diverse repertoire of regulatory options in relation to the climate change adaptation. At the same time, it is also clear that regional planning has so far focused on the aspect of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

As a rule, even in preventive flood protection plans, the fundamental issue of climate change is primarily seen as a justification for a more consistent application of existing regional planning instruments in the areas of urban development, cooling parklands and green belts, as well as for renewable energy sites.

One of the most important challenges of regional planning is to expand the range of issues that take account of the adaptation to climate change.