Background and Goals
In Germany, there are increasing indications that climate change triggered by greenhouse gas emissions has begun (e.g. 4th situation report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). For the purposes of forward-looking planning, it is therefore essential to estimate the impact of possible change on people, the environment and the economy and to devise adaptation strategies - regardless of whether people can contribute to limiting global climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change, with its potential impact on sea levels, the water balance in river areas, water quality and ecological relationships, can influence the capabilities and management of watercourses as transportation routes. The Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS) has commissioned several specialist bodies - the German National Meteorological Office (DWD), the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) and the Federal Institute for Hydraulic Engineering (BAW) - to apply the scientific principles of climate effect research to waterways and shipping and to develop adaptation strategies to ensure the capacity of these transportation routes in the future. As part of this initiative, the specialist bodies from the BMVBS produced an inventory of the possible effects on waterways and maritime/inland shipping.
Based on the results of the 1st phase, the research programme "KLIWAS - Effects of Climate Change on Waterways and Shipping - Development of Adaptation Options" has been running since the beginning of 2009, with a considerably broader frame of reference. In this project, the BMVBS's association of research institutions cooperates closely with the national and international academic network. They will advise the federal government on the shipping/waterways sector, e.g. in the context of the requirements of the German climate change adaptation strategy. The results of the KLIWAS programme will have cross-sectoral importance for hydrology. As well as coordinating the entire research network, which has 31 projects, the BfG is responsible for running projects in the areas of drainage modelling, sediment transfer, water quality and ecology.
The objective of the project is to investigate the effects of climate change on waterways. Core questions in the 1st phase are: How will the climate in Central Europe change between now and 2100? How will this affect drainage and water levels in different sections of navigable rivers (e.g. the Rhine)? What are the expected consequences of these changes for the Rhine, the most important inland waterway in Europe?
In the 2nd phase, possible actions for the economy and inland shipping will be formulated: What the best adaptation strategies for companies that depend on the reliability of waterways? What management measures from the Federal Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) will sustainably protect and improve the Rhine as a transport route?
The investigations are initially concentrating on the Rhine. However, the methods to be developed will be created with a view to planned applicability to other waterways.
Content time
toResearch area/region
- Germany
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Emission scenarios studied: A1B, B1 and A2 (IPCC);
Models: Combinations of global and regional models (Ensemble-approach), e.g. ECHAM5, MPI-OM and REMO from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (cooperation with ENSEMBLES project).
- River flooding
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Sea level rise und storm surges
- Low water
Changes in precipitation patterns, increase in extreme weather phenomena and weather periods, precipitation and temperature (mean and extreme values)
- medium term = to 2050
- long term = to 2100 and beyond
In addition to warming of the atmospheric layer close to the ground, changes in precipitation patterns as a part of climate change will also be discussed. This leads to effects on drainage regimes and channelling of the major German flows. Thus, the effects of climate change on drainage, water levels, riverbed morphology, nautical properties of waterways, inland shipping and freight companies must be analysed. For this purpose , an analysis of the inland water resources, an analysis of oceanographic, hydrographic and hydrological changes on the coast as well as an analysis of the sediment budget, water quality and the ecological systems.
Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances
Vulnerability is viewed as a combination of climate and drainage scenarios, sensitivity and adaptation capacity and options.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Adaptation activities and strategies have been developed and inventoried in the 2nd phase of the project. Based on the climate projections the regional climate impacts on the individual waterways are estimated and appropriate courses of action were designed. KLIWAS focus on economically reasonable steps to ensure the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD).
- 2036–2065
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Participants
Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS)
Federal Agency for Water Management, Koblenz
Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS) with its agencies German National Meteorological Service (DWD), Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) and Federal Institute for Hydraulic Engineering (BAW)
Project partners:
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg;
- European Institute for Energy Research - EIfER, University of Karlsruhe;
- DST - Development Centre for Ship Technology and Transport Systems, Duisburg;
- Institute for Geography, Julius Maximilian University Würzburg
Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde
Referat M2
Am Mainzer Tor 1
D-56068 Koblenz