KLIMOPASS - Climate change and model-based adaptation in Baden-Württemberg
Background and Goals
In May 2010, the Baden-Württemberg Council of Ministers launched the new research programme "Climate change and model-based adaptation in Baden-Württemberg (KLIMOPASS)".
The objective of the research project is to investigate the effects of climate change and the adaptation options for Baden-Württemberg. This will be done by promoting cross-sector and multiple issue joint projects. KLIMOPASS consists of two parts:
Part 1 "Basic research on regional climate effects" with the following themes:
(1) Geographical and chronological aggregation of regional climate models for Baden-Württemberg taking account of current global models including comparative analysis, validation and evaluation;
(2) Effects of climate change on energy consumption, energy provision and supply in Baden-Württemberg including model-based adaptation;
(3) Effects of climate change on existing infrastructure facilities in Baden-Württemberg including model-based adaptation; (4) Effects of climate change on the Baden-Württemberg economy and options for action by the public and private sectors; (5) Perspectives for living conditions and quality of life in Baden-Württemberg in 2050 and 2100 taking account of climate change;
Part 2 "Applied research and model projects":
Environment:
- Survey of climatological measured data for Baden-Württemberg and creation of a meta database;
- Development of a concept for monitoring climate effects and adaptation measures using a model region in Baden-Württemberg;
- Effects of climate change on Baden-Württemberg flora using the example of urban flora;
- Effect of climate change on development of nitrate load in groundwater, using the example of the overall Langenauer Donauried drainage basin;
- Influence of climate change on ecological functions of the soil due to topsoil degradation; - Development of an instrument for early identification of topsoil changes in typical Baden-Württemberg soils;
Forestry:
- Decision-making tool for forestry and climate - Model project: Vulnerability analysis at forest stock level;
- Environmental changes against the backdrop of growth of main Baden-Württemberg tree species: Extraction and analysis of environmental growth signals from long-term measuring series;
- Contribution of forest management to mitigating climate change
- Effects of forest management strategies on carbon sequestration in Baden-Württemberg;
Agriculture:
- Invasive species as fish food in Lake Constance;
- Development and optimisation of sensor-based complex control strategies for optimum pen climate control in freely ventilated open front pig pens;
- Groundwater balance with conserving soil cultivation; - Regulation of scale insects in apple cultivation with beneficial organisms;
Tourism:
- Future mobility in the Black Forest holiday region;
Health:
- Indoor climate and mental state / satisfaction with living conditions of residents in housing with partial energy upgrades;
- Investigations of the occurrence of visceral Leishmaniasis in Baden-Württemberg;
Content time
toResearch area/region
Country
- Germany
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
- Baden-Württemberg
Natural spatial classification
- Alp and North Bavarian hills
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
The work is based on retrospectively analysed climate trends for normal climate periods and regionalised climate scenarios based on IPCC SRES. A range of emission scenarios (A1 to B1) for several periods (up to 2050, up to 2100) is being analysed. Cooperation with the South German Climate Office on climate projections.
Parameter (climate signals)
- River flooding
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Extreme precipitation (incl. hail, snow)
Further Parameters
all climate parameters from the climate models, extreme events
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
The climate effects studied include extreme events such as heavy precipitation and hail, as well as flooding due to increased winter precipitation (refer to the relevant research projects for details).
Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances
Approach and results
Details can be found in the relevant research projects;
In the "Vulnerability analysis at forest stock level" model project, the initial phase involved a comprehensive vulnerability analysis for the forests, which encompassed risks such as drought, storms, insects, changed growth and range shifts. The project is intended to come up with a basis for forest management and institutions under a changing climate in Baden-Württemberg. For the main tree species beech and spruce - taking account of other species such as fir, Douglas fir and oak - the aim is to specify the criteria for tree species suitability in the areas of competition intensity in the ecosystem, predisposition to abiotic and biotic harm factors and growth rate. An extensive representation of the consequences of climate changes will be drawn up, and the vulnerability of forests to climate changes will be identified and forecast for the future using available climate scenarios. In a second stage, adaptation strategies will be drawn up and evaluated.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Measures and/or strategies
Details can be found in the relevant research projects;
Background: Adaptation strategies that go beyond the "flexible and no regret" strategy currently being used in many areas - which will be needed in the future - only make sense if they have a specific geographical reference, target the key specific hazards and have an effect and function that can be verified. The relationship between cost and return must be considered to ensure that available resources are used as effectively as possible. This requires key vulnerable structures in the relevant area to be identified and classified according to their importance. Adaptation strategies with a specific geographical reference must also be set up in such a way that they can be adjusted at a later date to take account of future ecological, economic and social developments (human and natural) and possible changes in terms of the dynamics and extent of climate change and its impact. Adaptation strategies must be adaptation processes. Therefore, a verification and monitoring system is necessary.
Time horizon
- 2021–2050 (near future)
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Participants
Funding / Financing
Future Offensive III by the state of Baden-Württemberg (Part 1) and the Baden-Württemberg Ministry for the Environment, Climate and Energy (Part 2)
Project management
Landesanstalt für Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Württemberg (LUBW)
Cooperation/Partners
- TU Dortmund;
- Karlsruher Institut für Technologie - KIT;
- Universität Stuttgart;
- Hochschule für Forstwirtschaft Rottenburg;
- Universität Freiburg, Institut für Landespflege;
- Institut für Botanik und Landschaftskunde;
- Ingenieurgesellschaft Prof. Kobus und Partner GmbH;
- Universität Hannover, Institut für Bodenkunde;
- Forstliche Versuchs- und Forschungsanstalt Baden-Württemberg (FVA);
- Landwirtschaftlichen Zentrum für Rinderhaltung, Grünlandwirtschaft, Milchwirtschaft, Wild und Fischerei Baden-Württemberg (LAZBW);
- Bildungs- und Wissenszentrum Boxberg;
- Landwirtschaftliche Technologiezentrum Augustenberg (LTZ);
- Kompetenzzentrum Obstbau Bodensee;
- Steinbeis Beratungszentrum Trossingen;
- Landesgesundheitsamt;
- Universität Hohenheim, Inst. für Zoologie, Fachgebiet Parasitologie;
Contact
Landesanstalt für Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Württemberg (LUBW)
Referat 23
Griesbachstraße 1
D-76185 Karlsruhe
