KlimLandRP - Climate- and Landscape-Change in Rhineland-Palatina | Umweltbundesamt

The individual modules pursued in the KlimLandRP project are based on previous analyses, in particular the emission scenarios A1B and A2. Both scenarios lie in the upper third of the possible evolution of carbon dioxide. A1B corresponds to a concentration of 850 ppm, A2 to 1250 ppm. Currently, the global CO2 concentration is approximately 390 ppm (as of 2009), whereas 280 ppm were measured in the year 1880. The actual measured level of global fossil carbon emissions has reached or slightly exceeded the level of the scenarios used since 2006.

The reference period 1971-2000 is assumed for the current climate. Forward-looking considerations make reference to the periods 2021-2050 (near future) and 2071-2100 (far future). In order to reflect the variability and to obtain the most reliable statements, several of the available regional models and emission scenarios are used in parallel.

An increase in annual average temperature by 1.1°C from 1901 to 2008 is an indicator of climate change in Rhineland-Palatina. Especially the winter, depending on the region it has become up to 2°C warmer, indicating already considerable changes in environmental conditions. The observed trends will continue also into the future according to the regionalized climate projections.

In Rhineland-Palatina, as in other regions in Germany, the climate will continue to change. It is however also likely that the already known, yet rare situations, such as the summer heatwave of 2003, will become more common or the norm in the future. According to the current trend, there are clear indications of an increase in extreme weather events like heavy precipitation and droughts.

The consequences of climate change for environmental and land use can vary greatly, depending on the extent of the climate changes. Consequently, it is important to map possible climate changes, as well as to identify the associated effects on different areas or sectors. Accordingly, the developed adaptation measures must be diverse and flexible. According to the different emission scenarios, the applied climate model calculations span a range of likely developments.

Based on regional climate projections and with the help of simulation models, areas have been identified that are vulnerable to climate change now and in future. The goal is to estimate a range of possible climate-related developments for the state of Rhineland-Palatina and assess their implications for different sectors.

A variety of base maps were created in the project KlimLandRP that can serve as a basis for planning for adaptation measures. Thus, for example, so-called climate-suitability maps for the five major tree species were developed in the forest module to support future decision making on the choice of tree types. The cards will be considered in future forest planning. At the landscape level, different types of forest tree species and a variety of different blends and origins contribute to the dispersion of risks. In order to give recommendations for a particular forest site, it is nonetheless necessary to consider local expert knowledge and information.