INKLIM 2012 - Integrated Climate Protection Programme Hesse 2012 | Umweltbundesamt

Scientific analysis and examination of historical statistics on the climate change since 1900 Prediction of the possible climate development in Hesse up to the year 2100 using a statistical regionalisation method based on weather patterns, with the aid of the IPCC emission scenario (SRES) B2 and the results of the climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3. Apart from the political framework, the the integrated scenario analysis will also concern itself with economic, demographic and technological developments.

trans-weather patterns,extreme weather events

The analysis of the regional climate effects is mainly carried out in Module II The climate effects investigated include, for example, the increase in the risk of flooding in winter and of extremely low water levels in summer, which can pose problems for waterway travel and shipping, the operation of large power plants and for waste introduction from sewage treatment plants. For groundwater, the climate projections predict a higher renewal rate in many areas of Hesse, and thus a tendency to higher groundwater levels. In agriculture, a general tendency to lower crop yields can be expected, accompanied by greater variations in the annual yield from one year to the next. For fruit and wine growing, there may be a danger through crop burns, leading to a decline in quality and yield. Changes in the regional wine characteristics are also to be expected, due to higher temperatures. Fruit growers also face dangers from the increased risk of hail and late frosts. Another consequence is the shift of the phenological phases, such as the budding and emergence of flowers and leaves in plants, that will occur much earlier in the year. For forestry, temperature increases and summer droughts pose a problem for shallow-rooted trees (e.g. spruce), especially in sandy soils. Because of the high soil carbon level, the climate change could lead to feedback effects here, if the microbial carbon respiration is accelerated. A further problematic effect could prove to be the increase in erosion, by which fertile soil is lost for agricultural use due to heavy rainfall after dry periods in summer. The climate change will also have negative effects on the biodiversity in Hesse. These will take the form of direct effects, such as the extinction of certain species due to changes in their habitat occurring too rapidly for their ability to adapt, but also of more complex effects, such as disturbing predator-prey interrelationships, for example. In the area of public health, risks will arise from direct heat effects, but also from the spread of diseases previously unknown in Hesse.

Background and aims Adaptive measures need to be implemented with the aim of minimizing the negative effects of the climate change and maximizing the positive effects. Adaptive measures are divided into:

• Reactive adaptive measures (e.g. relocation of residents in unprotected flood areas)
•  Anticipatory adaptive measures (e.g. long-term flood protection programmes, research programmes on climate effects, information programmes for publishing findings)
•  Autonomous adaptive measures (measures taken by affected individuals themselves) and
•  Planned, strategic adaptive measures (usually implemented by government agencies)

.Adaptive measures considered are, for example in the field of agriculture and forestry, a changed agricultural and forestry management. Forestry adaptation measures in Hesse, for example, include changes in tree species selection, rejuvenation of tree populations, forest thinning and stand diversity management, new forest protection strategies and the conservation and promotion of biodiversity in forests. In the area of ??flood protection, dikes or shelters serve to reduce climate damage due to extreme weather events.