Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project | Umweltbundesamt

Four UKCIP socio-economic scenarios were used, associated with high, medium-high, medium-low and low emissions (see UKCIP).

see UKCIP

The future flood risks were estimated under the assumption that policies and expenditure on flood management remain unchanged. Under every scenario considered, flooding would increase substantially by the 2080s, although the associated costs varied between £1 billion and around £27 billion, depending on the scenario. Some areas in Great Britain and Northern Ireland are especially threatened - for example, the Lancashire-Humber corridor, the east and south coasts, and major estuaries. Towns and cities will also be subject to potentially huge damage caused by the sewer and drainage systems being overwhelmed by sudden localised downpours. Coastal erosion will also increase substantially, in all scenarios. Average annual damage is calculated to increase by 3-9 times by the 2080s.

Salt marshes could benefit from the abandonment of uneconomic coastal farmland under some scenarios, but habitats such as coastal grazing marsh are threatened under every scenario.

If today's policies remain unchanged, the flood risks would increase enormously. The risks need to be addressed using a broad approach. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions would substantially lower future risks, However, it is unlikely that this alone will be sufficient, so that we must invest more in a sustainable flood and coastal management in order to avoid increased flooding.

A wide range of responses can make substantial reductions in future risk, although their effectiveness depends very much on the scenario. However, no single response can adequately reduce the considerable risks that have been identified. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions would substantially help to minimize future risks.

The adaptation measures examined ranged from land management over flood forecasting and technical engineering approaches to the abandonment of certain regions.