Climate Change and Nature Conservation in Germany | Umweltbundesamt

Literature study on climatic changes and regional climate scenarios and models; no separate climate scenario

The current publications illustrate the potential risks that endangered species and habitats will be exposed to in the coming decades due to emerging climate change. Depending on the scenario, 10 to 50% of species at local or global level are forecast to become extinct because the existing conservation areas do not correspond at all to the anticipated migratory movements due to climate change. Species loss as a result of climate change will therefore be much more significant in the near future than direct habitat loss, as is the case today. It is likely that these scenarios will also apply to Germany and that a species loss of between 5 and 30% can be expected.

Existing knowledge on the impact of changes in temperature, CO2 and soil moisture on German flora and fauna only relates to species currently classified as endangered in a small number of cases. In terms of herbaceous plants, this knowledge primarily relates to crop plants or common wild plants. The climate sensitivity of native tree species has been research almost exclusively on saplings or young trees; extrapolating these results to older trees and their climate sensitivity appears to be problematic. Likewise, autoecological and population data on climate sensitivity is only available for a few endangered species (mainly birds).

If the climate change projections actually occur, conventional conservation, which is predominantly concentrated in small-scale conservation areas, will have little chance of success. This assessment not only applies to Germany, but also to other European regions. Existing knowledge is not sufficient to make recommendations on conservation policy and a detailed risk analysis for German land relevant for conservation cannot be provided on an ad hoc basis. To date, there has been no systematic assessment at species or habitat level of the effect of temperature increases and a reduction in summer precipitation, for example, on the flora and fauna in Germany, or their abundance and distribution.

An analysis of the need for research and action shows that an "Experimental climate change research" programme should be recommended, concentrating on example model organisms and model ecosystems and supported by the German Federal Ministries responsible for the relevant areas. In addition, a study to be supported by the Federal Conservation Agency should come up with a geographically explicit risk analysis for protected areas in German conservation and recommendations for medium to long-term conservation priorities. This study will link the available geographical and ecological data in Germany with knowledge on the impact of climate changes.