Background and Goals
Land surface in Germany is much in demand. It is used for many different needs of society, such as for producing food, energy and wood, building settlements and roads, or for leisure and recreation. As a consequence of the climate change, even more demands are now made on land use. On the one hand, we expect to be able to use land in ways that will help prevent the climate change, for example, for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in energy production by replacing fossil fuels with biomass, or by using the ability of vegetation and soil to bind greenhouse gases. On the other hand, our land use needs to be adapted to take the climate change into account. These additional requirements exacerbate the land use conflicts that already exist.
The focus of the joint research project CC-LandStraD, the German title of which roughly translates as “strategies for a sustainable land use management in Germany in the face of the climate change”, is how to integrate aspects of preserving an intact environment, climate protection, and sustainable resource management into this complex area of conflict.
Objectives:
CC-LandStraD aims to identify which land use measures are particularly suited to protecting the climate, but also to adapting to the possible consequences of the climate change. The aim is to analyse interactions between different land use forms and the climate change, as well as to develop socially acceptable land use strategies for Germany. In this way, the project aims to contribute towards attaining Germany's climate protection targets. Moreover, it aims to support the land use policy adjustments necessary for dealing with the effects of the climate change. The project takes into account:
- all the relevant land-use sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, housing development and transportation, as well as
- all the relevant land-use requirements, such as food and commodity production, bioenergy, nature conservation, etc.
The joint project is divided into five modules, including one for coordination. All modules are interlinked in order to allow an integrated analysis of the outlined research questions and objectives. Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary methods will be applied for this purpose. Methods and models from the natural sciences will be used as well as from the social and behavioural sciences. The modules are concerned with:
- the development of scenarios and land management strategies in dialogue with stakeholders,
- integrated climate modelling, biophysical modelling and socio-economic modelling (across sectors, nationwide, and regionally differentiated),
- the evaluation of climatic, ecological and socio-economic effects of land use options,
- the exemplary testing of the social acceptability and feasibility of optional courses of action in example regions The case study regions selected are the Altmark and regions in the Cologne Lowlands (Cologne Bay).
Content time
toResearch area/region
- Germany
- Northrhine-Westphalia
- Saxony-Anhalt
- North-East German lowland
- West German lowland bay
Altmark, Rhein-Sieg-Kreis, Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
The regional statistical climate model STAR will be used. The Statistical Regional Model (STAR) was developed to augment the climate simulation results of global models, to reduce the inaccuracies in regional applicability to a minimum.
The core of the project is also to develop land use scenarios for 2030. To this end, it is oriented towards the built environment, particularly settlement areas. The expected land use and scenarios for 2030 are based on a trend forecast (business as usual). The land use scenarios serve to develop regionalised forecasts for settlement and transport areas. They are also intended to help quantify the remaining open areas for other land uses, such as agriculture and forestry, and, moreover, to explore strategies for developing settlement areas with a reduced carbon footprint. The results will be examined in terms of their climate effects.
- Heat waves
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Dry periods
relative humidity, radiation
2060
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Together with the way we use our land, more frequent extreme temperatures, increased precipitation in the winter, reduced precipitation in spring and summer, and longer dry periods in the summer, will all influence nature, the ecology, and the perceived landscapes of our environment. Additional climate protection and climate adaptation requirements exacerbate the land use conflicts that already exist.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
CC-LandStraD aims at developing socially acceptable land use strategies for Germany. This includes land use strategies for climate protection (mitigation) and climate adaptation to counter the effects of the climate change. To this end, the interactions between the climate change and land use will be analysed throughout Germany. Based on the interactions between land use and the climate change that are identified, the project will develop optional courses of action and measures that have a positive effect on climate protection and take the adaptation to the climate change into account . The possibilities for implementing these optional courses of action and measures will be tested by way of example, using regional participation processes in two selected case study regions (the Altmark and regions in the Cologne Lowlands).
Background:
In recent years, the demands on land use policy for contributing to climate protection goals have increased. For example, the quantities of carbon and other greenhouse gases bound in the soil and vegetation can be maintained and even increased with the aid of suitable land management policies. A further possibility is to replace energy generated by fossil fuel combustion with renewable energy obtained from biomass sources. The potential of land management to contribute to climate protection is determined by complex interactions between the land use changes and the geo-biosphere that have not yet been fully clarified.
Objectives:
The feasibility of land use strategies with which climate protection objectives can be achieved is to be tested in the example regions, also taking the legal framework into account.
- 2036–2065
Step 4: Plan and implement measures
The subproject "socio-economic assessment of land management strategies" consolidates the direct and indirect costs and benefits of land management options into an integrated assessment, with which decision makers and stakeholders can compare and decide between alternative management strategies. The aim of the subproject is to evaluate changes within a complex set of ecosystem services from a social perspective.
The "forest economics" subproject carries out modelling and economic valuations of various forestry land use options with regard to their carbon storage under changed environmental conditions. The "agricultural economics" subproject carries out model based analyses of agricultural land use strategies and land management systems for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Participants
Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), research programme “Sustainable Land Management”
Institute of Rural Studies, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institute
- Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development(BBSR),
- Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW),
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),
- University of Münster,
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research e.V. (ZALF).
Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut
Bundesforschungsinstitut für Ländliche Räume, Wald und Fischerei
Bundesallee 50
38116 Braunschweig
Germany